How To Choose Your Target Market
Eben Pagan reveals the critical mistake entrepreneurs make when choosing target markets by planning who should buy their products instead of finding people who already want to buy something. He teaches the use case thinking exercise to shift from creator-centered to customer-centered market selection.
Teachings 4
Entrepreneurs universally make the mistake of choosing target markets by planning who should buy their products instead of finding groups of people who already want to buy something
Eben identifies this as a 'universal' pattern among business people who sit back thinking 'I'm going to plan my target, I'm going to plan who's going to buy this' rather than discovering existing needs
Creators must balance creation and discovery, but should start with the customer's perspective rather than trying to choose who will buy their products
Eben acknowledges that 'as a person who is creating...we get to create and discover at the same time' but emphasizes starting customer-first
Use case thinking requires regular practice with exercises done on paper repeatedly until the mind automatically thinks from the customer's perspective
Eben describes exercises as 'training wheels for use case thinking' that must be done 'on paper over and over and over and then your mind will start doing it automatically'
Customer motivation is driven entirely by irrational fears, desires, thoughts and fantasies rather than logical cost-benefit analysis
Eben uses the golf club example where buyers don't calculate '17 cents per drive over the year' but think about friends seeing the club in their golf bag and going 'yeah'
Perspectives 2
True market validation means finding out something customers want and giving it to them, not trying to talk people into wanting what you've already created
Eben contrasts 'emotional estimation' (planning who will buy) with real validation (discovering what people already want to buy)
People make emotional decisions first and then rationalize them with logic afterward, not the other way around
Using the golf club purchase, Eben shows how buyers think about the emotional impact ('my friends see it...they're gonna be like yeah'), make the decision ('we go click'), then 'go do the math and rationalize it'
Quotable Moments 3
“stop trying to choose who's going to buy your stuff and let them”
— Eben Pagan“all of the stuff all that motivates us is irrational it doesn't make any sense”
— Eben Pagan“you've got to connect with the irrational”
— Eben Pagan
How to Practice Use Case Thinking for Target Market Selection
A systematic exercise to train your mind to think from the customer's perspective when selecting target markets
- 1
Identify Specific Situations
Start with situations that your prospect is experiencing that relate to their pain, urgency, desire or passion
- 2
Uncover Irrational Motivations
Identify the irrational fears, desires, thoughts and fantasies that drive their decisions, not logical reasoning
- 3
Map Search Behavior
Determine how your prospect will search for you, how they'll look for solutions and where they'll be looking
- 4
Plan Customer Experience
Design the customer experience you want to create for them once they find you
Questions Answered
How should entrepreneurs choose their target market
“stop trying to choose who's going to buy your stuff and let them”
— Eben Pagan▶ 1:02
Instead of planning who should buy your product, find groups of people who already want to buy something and create it for them. Start with the customer's perspective rather than trying to choose who will buy your stuff.
What is use case thinking and how do you practice it
“we use exercises to tune our brains okay we use the exercise to train our mind to do this automatically”
— Eben Pagan▶ 1:33
Use case thinking is a framework that trains your mind to automatically think from the customer's perspective. Practice it by doing exercises on paper repeatedly until your mind starts doing it automatically - it's like training wheels for customer-centered thinking.
Why do customers make irrational purchasing decisions
“all of the stuff all that motivates us is irrational it doesn't make any sense”
— Eben Pagan▶ 2:03
All customer motivation is driven by irrational fears, desires, thoughts and fantasies. People make emotional decisions first, then use logic to rationalize them afterward, not the other way around.
What is the difference between market validation and emotional estimation
“emotional estimation and seeing only validation at its best is sitting back and thinking okay I'm going to create this thing and I know who it's created for”
— Eben Pagan▶ 0:32
Emotional estimation is sitting back and planning who should buy your product and trying to talk them into wanting it. True validation is finding out something customers already want and then giving it to them.
How do golf club purchases demonstrate irrational buying behavior
“we think in terms of when I roll up with my golf bag and I put it in the cart and my friends see it sticking out they're gonna be like yeah”
— Eben Pagan▶ 2:36
Golf club buyers don't calculate the rational value (17 cents per drive improvement). Instead, they imagine friends seeing the club in their golf bag and being impressed, make the emotional decision, then rationalize it with math afterward.
Summary
The Universal Target Market Selection Mistake
Eben reveals that entrepreneurs universally make the mistake of planning who should buy their products instead of finding people who already want to buy something. This creator-centered approach leads to trying to convince people rather than serving existing needs.
Use Case Thinking Exercise Framework
Eben introduces use case thinking as a systematic approach to shift from creator-centered to customer-centered thinking. The framework requires regular practice with written exercises until the mind automatically thinks from the customer's perspective.
Understanding Irrational Customer Motivations
Using golf club purchases as an example, Eben demonstrates how all customer motivation is irrational and driven by emotions. People make decisions based on fantasies and social validation, then rationalize them with logic afterward.

Counterpoint
Claim: “Business people should plan and choose their target markets by deciding who should buy their products”
Reframe: Find groups of people who already want to buy something and create it for them instead of trying to choose who will buy what you've already made
Eben identifies this as a 'universal' mistake where entrepreneurs plan their target rather than discovering existing needs in the market
Claim: “Customers make purchasing decisions based on rational cost-benefit analysis”
Reframe: All customer motivation is irrational - driven by fears, desires, thoughts and fantasies, with logic used only to rationalize emotional decisions afterward
Golf club buyers don't calculate 17 cents per drive value but imagine friends seeing the club and feeling impressed, then rationalize the purchase mathematically
Key Points 6
Entrepreneurs universally make the mistake of choosing target markets by planning who should buy their products instead of finding groups of people who already want to buy something
True market validation means finding out something customers want and giving it to them, not trying to talk people into wanting what you've already created
▶ 0:32Creators must balance creation and discovery, but should start with the customer's perspective rather than trying to choose who will buy their products
▶ 1:02Use case thinking requires regular practice with exercises done on paper repeatedly until the mind automatically thinks from the customer's perspective
▶ 1:33Customer motivation is driven entirely by irrational fears, desires, thoughts and fantasies rather than logical cost-benefit analysis
▶ 2:03People make emotional decisions first and then rationalize them with logic afterward, not the other way around
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Topics
Coaching Strategies
Business Frameworks
Common Mistakes